Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and represents the opinion of the author only.
Despite all the turbulence Solana [SOL] seen over the past six months, it remains one of the top 10 assets by market capitalization in the crypto sphere. This speaks volumes about the confidence of investors and holders in Solana, dubbed “Ethereum [ETH] killer” by some of its most ardent users. Even Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is an admirer of the protocol.
When the United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) filed trial Binance [BNB] and Coinbase [COIN] in early June, he tagged sseveral altcoins, including SOL, as securities. Recently, even Buterine depressed how the regulator targets projects like Solana.
Heading into 2023, SOL was hovering around the $10 support zone. It was already struggling with a downtrend that dated back to November 2021 when SOL was trading at $200. Just as investors began pricing in further losses in the crypto market in January, Bitcoin [BTC] spiked past $17,000 and shifted short-term sentiment to bullish.
Solana took massive advantage of this swing and saw gains of 175% in 21 days. However, it was unable to break through the $26-$28 resistance zone, which has served as support since June-November 2022.
Read Solana’s [SOL] Price Prediction 2023-24
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics company Messari published a report analyze the degree of decentralization between the different chains. Proof of Stake (PoS) network Solana, with an overall Nakamoto coefficient of 1.9, appears to have outperformed its peers.
The most bullish scenario of 2023, according to AMBCrypto’s prediction bot, could see SOL valued at $75.5. However, we can ask another bot for its opinion on Solana’s price, network health, and trajectory after giving it a few relevant data points.
Can we convince ChatGPT to make a Solana price prediction if we give it enough information?
ChatGPT has been a remarkable chatbot and the updates of last month made ChatGPT 4.0 quite impressive. It’s a powerful learning tool, well-rounded on a wide range of topics. Still, we must remember that the bot is designed to mimic a human and is not necessarily guaranteed to be factually accurate. The jailbreak version of ChatGPT would probably be even more imprecise, as it is specifically instructed not to say no to anything the user asks.
And yet, it is possible to get some guesses from the chatbot about what the future might hold if we provide it with details of recent price movements.
So, what does ChatGPT think of Solana? Does she see a path to recovery from her recent setbacks? Based on transaction fees and transaction speeds, ChatGPT seems to think Solana will be an Ethereum killer.
Source: ChatGPT
We have yet to brief him on the challenges Solana and SOL investors have faced in recent months. Let’s start with the biggest hole in investor confidence –
FTX, where the freefall began
Sam Bankman-Fried was one of the most vocal supporters of the Solana network. The community considered him a credible and smart entrepreneur who was the CEO of one of the biggest crypto exchanges, FTX. Even though Binance reigned supreme in terms of volume and token pairs, FTX got what it paid for. Competition is also good for the industry and serves customers.
Much has changed since then, and the SEC has accused Mr. Bankman-Fried of defrauding FTX stock investors, further alleging that he mixed FTX client funds with those of Alameda to make undisclosed venture investments. He faces more than 100 years in prison if convicted on all counts.
Not only did Solana’s reputation take a hit, but the foundation also sold a significant amount of SOL to FTX Trading and Alameda Research. This amounted to SOL 58.08 million, or 11% of the outstanding supply at the time FTX filed for bankruptcy. It was valued at nearly $1.1 billion at the time.
As expected, the price of Solana took a nosedive in November and fell 45% from November 11 to December 31, from $18.08 to $8. With FTX insolvency rumors circulating as of November 5, SOL had already lost 50% the previous week, when trading close to $38. This brought SOL’s total losses from November 5, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to 79.4%.
Source: ChatGPT
ChatGPT certainly looks bullish, and the start of 2023 has gone extraordinarily well for investors. And yet, some network issues surfaced, just as they did in 2022.
SOL gained 180% in January and February 2023, exceeding all expectations
From January 1 to February 20, Solana gained 179.88% on the price charts and fell from $9.69 to $27.12. This explosive rally was attributed in part to Bonk; a piece even introduced in the Solana ecosystem on the model of Shiba Inu.
Part of the total supply of 99 trillion was airdropped into the wallets of Solana users in December. The number of transactions per day had been on a downward trend in the second half of December, but this reversed in early January.
Is your wallet green? Check out the Solana Profit Calculator
Soon, transactions accelerated once again. The introduction of the fun coin did a lot to steer the community away from the dark and depressing shadow that the FTX debacle had cast over Solana.
When fed with on-chain data and price trends in recent months, the jailbroken version of ChatGPT garnered opinion on Solana’s performance in Q3 2023.
Source: ChatGPT
The network has faced troublesome outages in recent months, and that could hurt investor confidence. The chatbot accepted.
Source: Open AI
Forecasts aside, what does the price analysis tell us about Solana?
Some imbalances remain in the south
Source: SOL/USD, TradingView
At press time, SOL was trading at $18.48, an appreciation of more than 10% in one week. Its value has fallen nearly 20% since the SEC’s enforcement action against Coinbase and Binance.
While the price movements of SOL and While the equilibrium volume (OBV) remains fragile, its relative strength index (RSI) has shown an upward trend. But again, its Money Flow Index (MFI) was well below the neutral level of 50.
We cannot predict a very bright future for Solana in the short term.
Conclusion
Even though ChatGPT predicts that the price of SOL will rally to the $300-$500 range during the third quarter of this year, its metrics on the chart paint a very different picture. It is therefore essential that traders do their own research before investing in any crypto asset.