Miners send millions to exchanges – 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) begins the first week of July with a sigh of relief for traders as the $30,000 support holds.

BTC price action refuses to succumb to declines after 20% gains in the second quarter, with weekly and monthly timeframes looking solid. And after?

A quiet week is expected in TradFi markets, with Wall Street gearing up for the Independence Day holiday and little in store in terms of US macro data.

Bitcoin therefore needs volatility triggers from elsewhere if the bulls are to have any chance of breaking the resistance in place for several months.

Opinions from market participants are mixed on this topic – some believe that $32,000 and above is easily achievable, while others see this month as the peak of Bitcoin’s recovery in 2023.

Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the major factors that are likely to influence BTC price performance in the days and weeks ahead.

Short-term BTC price bullish calls extend to $40,000

Bitcoin’s weekly close was convenient for bulls, offering only modest volatility as BTC/USD continued to rise overnight.

The new week therefore saw a visit to $30,850 on Bitstamp, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView – the latest attempt to act closer to the $31,000 mark and yearly highs.

BTC/USD 1 hour chart. Source: Trading View

The fuel for a change in trend nonetheless remains absent, leading more optimistic traders to wait and see when it comes to a continuation of the upside.

“My Bitcoin plan remains the same”, popular trader Jelle summary to Twitter followers in part of his latest analysis.

“The market structure is bullish, we have recovered the 200 week EMA. Once we reach the $32,000 resistance zone, I expect the bull market to start. Until then, we trade the range and buy deeper pullbacks.

Jelle referenced the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which, along with its simple moving average (SMA), continues to serve as support for the market after a brief challenge in June.

An attached chart showed that the first major upside target was the current all-time high at $69,000.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/Twitter

Fellow Crypto trader Ed was hoping for a push towards $36,000 and even $40,000, while first considering the likelihood of a retracement to $28,000 – already a popular buy zone.

Market structure, he said, remained “good” despite last-minute volatility through the end of the month, with BTC/USD hitting $29,500.

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile noted the role of Bitcoin whales in maintaining the BTC price range.

“There is no doubt that BTC whales dispensed in the $30,000 range, but they also bought the dips that helped keep BTC in that range,” is part of a deeper analysis. added.

As Cointelegraph reported, July has never seen more than 10% losses for the BTC price, but that’s not stopping popular trader CryptoBullet from forecasting an end to bullish moves this month.

Predicting the area around $36,000 as the local high, CryptoBullet predicts that the downside – including the drop from the major moving averages – will come next.

“I’m not saying we’re going to dive to 20,000 this month or next month. Imo, it will happen in the fourth quarter,” he said. writing in subsequent Twitter comments on his original prediction.

Banks focus on losses from buying bonds

Fortunately, the macroeconomic climate is expected to be calm this week as the United States focuses on the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

Few macro data are due, and barring fewer curve events, the crypto should receive little volatility from sources such as changing inflation expectations.

Those expectations, however, remain anchored in the interest rate hikes that will return later this month, when the Federal Reserve meets to decide future policy.

As of July 3, data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the odds of a 0.25% hike at nearly 90%. The decision is expected in three weeks.

Fed Target Rate Probability Chart. Source: CME Group

“Every week looks pivotal as Fed rate expectations move rapidly. Meanwhile, stocks are hitting 52-week highs and trading has been tremendous,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summary on the mood, calling the week ahead “short but important.”

Elsewhere, growing attention is being paid to the US banking sector.

Regional banks continue to struggle, as evidenced by the performance of the KBW Regional Banks Index (KRX).

Even Bank of America (BoA) is on the radar for its deficit bond purchases, a problem also faced by the German central bank.

“These amazing headlines don’t get enough attention,” said angel investor Balaji Srivinsan argued about an article in the Financial Times on the difficult situation of the Bundesbank.

“The central bank of the world’s fourth largest economy may need a bailout because it bought bonds. This is not a technology crisis or even a banking crisis. It’s a bond crisis, a central bank crisis, a fiduciary crisis.

Kobeissi meanwhile warned that the US banking implosions that sparked Bitcoin’s bull run in March shared key similarities with the current situation with the BoA.

Bitcoin Miners Challenge Record Exchange Transfers

Bitcoin miners highlighted the importance of BTC price action passing and holding $30,000 – but perhaps not in the way the bulls would like.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals a huge increase in the amount of coins miners are sending to exchanges.

This even surpassed April 2021 levels, when BTC/USD hit $58,000 on the first of the year’s new all-time highs.

“Following the spot price’s ascent above the psychologically key $30,000 level, Bitcoin miners continued to send large clips of BTC to exchanges,” Glassnode commented.

“Currently, miners are sending $105 million to exchanges, the second largest USD-denominated transfer on record.”

Annotated graph of entries from Bitcoin Miners to Exchanges. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Miner balances, however, maintain a slow overall upward trend in place since the start of 2023. On January 1, according to data from Glassnode, the total balance stood at 1,824,377 BTC, up from 1,827,916 BTC 2nd of July.

Bitcoin balance chart in Miner wallets. Source: Glassnode

Despite the selloffs, there is little evidence to suggest that BTC miners are struggling. The hash rate currently remains near all-time highs, while the network difficulty is only 3.26% lower than its own all-time highs seen last month.

Overview of the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

BTC for-profit hodlers refusing to sell

A more inspiring picture comes from the cohorts of loyal Bitcoin investors who refuse to sell, regardless of the price.

Even against the backdrop of this year’s gains, Bitcoin hodlers remain steadfast in their resolve not to take massive profits.

This is now reflected in the amount of BTC supply deemed “illiquid,” or out of reach should strong buying pressure return.

Glassnode’s Illiquid Supply Change metric is “extremely high”, currently at levels not seen except during the bear market pit of 2022. As prices have risen, so has hodler’s conviction.

On paper, hodlers have every reason to take profits at $30,000. Glassnode’s long-term market value-to-realized-value (LTH-MVRV) measure, which represents the profitability of coins held for 155 days or more, currently shows that the average LTH entity is making a profit of 47% on its position.

Graph of Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (LTH-MVRV). Source: Glassnode

Sentiment reflects investor indecision

Finally, the nervous nature of the average crypto market participant remains firmly on display in the sentiment data.

Related: Bitcoin Speculators Send 35K BTC To Exchanges In New “Influx Of Exaltation”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to highlight how malleable sentiment depends on how Bitcoin trades the $30,000 mark.

It’s not just BTC/USD that faces a key resistance/support reversal task – Ether (ETH) also has its work cut out to recover $2,000.

As such, Fear & Greed continues to bounce between the mid-50s – “neutral” – and mid-60s, or “greed”.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Current 2023 highs for the index are at 69/100, with levels at Bitcoin’s 2021 all-time highs of $69,000 only about 10% higher.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.